Israeli political scientist: we are witnessing the beginning of World War III
January 12th, 2016, 11: 58445.1t
Israeli political scientist: we are witnessing the beginning of World War III
Israel, the US and NATO can intervene in the conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia
Israeli political scientist and Rabbi Avraham Shmulevich told the "Observer", the consequences of worsening relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, as well as their allies.
- The execution of Shiite preacher Nimrah Nimrah al-Saudi Arabia provoked aggravation between Shiite Iran and Sunni countries. It was an accident or provocation?
- The war between Sunnis and Shiites, the fading, then flaring up, it is already 1300 years. And recent years, it flows pretty intense. Killed preacher was not a terrorist, but was considered the main ideologist of the Shiite minority in Saudi Arabia, ruled by Sunnis. The southern provinces of the country that are rich in oil, Shiites inhabit works with Iran, there have been a powerful emotion.
In parallel, the guerrilla war in Iran, inhabited by Arabs in Khuzestan province, where Sunni Arabs, who are opposed to Tehran, get open support from Saudi Arabia. For several years already is the Shia-Sunni civil war in Yemen, terrorist Sunni-Shiite war in Pakistan, and etc. The execution of Shiite Sunni preacher in the country one of the episodes of this long war, but for some reason he was in the focus of world media. In the "Third World," a lot of events that do not fall into the news feeds. Now Punjab (state in India) are fighting for the Indian Air Force military base where the terrorists were able to penetrate. Such things happen all the time, but just do not fall into primetime.
The conflict between Shiites and Sunnis are not a coincidence, but a long process, which we see, including in Syria. As a result, in my opinion, there is every chance that now the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran over the third world war. And the episode with the execution of Shiite preacher event that will go down in the books - the preparatory phase of the Third World.
Tension is growing: in Iran boasted an underground missile base
- What are the army of Saudi Arabia and Iran?
- Saudi Arabia is one of the largest importers of US weapons, there is a multibillion-dollar contracts. Therefore, they have modern weapons. But in Yemen, the Saudi army has shown itself not very good.
Iran has a large army, but armed with Soviet-Russian weapons. However, the Iranian army is better organized. There exists a three-tier system. First, the actual army. Second, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Third level: the system Basij (Nirouye Mokavemat-and Basij, the letters. "The mobilization of the forces of resistance"). It is something like the National Guard under the militia. There are several million people, according to official data of the Iranian 12.5 - 15 million. Of these, 5 million women. Basij formally subordinate to the Revolutionary Guards. Military to a certain extent in opposition to the "guards".
By arming the Saudis dominated and numerically - Iranians. In addition, Iran has a relatively well-developed military industry and science. What is not the Arabs. Iranians have a lot of experience fighting abroad. The professionalism of the Saudi pilot in question. The Iranian army is better prepared, to a certain degree of professionalism can compensate for inequality in weaponry.
- How can the conflict unfold, to develop local level?
- In Saudi Arabia, there is talk about the production of nuclear weapons. Iran has been possible to create a bomb, but they were stopped by international sanctions. If by proxy war in Syria, ie "proxy wars", they will go straight to the hot stage, both sides will develop nuclear weapons. This is cause to intervene the United States, Israel and NATO. On the other hand, Iran's nuclear program is the Russian elite that gets good money for it.
- In parallel, can flare up of the Russian-Turkish conflict?
- Among the Russians is very strong historical memory of the Russian-Turkish conflict. But this is not the Turks. In the collective consciousness of the Turkish war with the Russian Empire in the periphery. Home horror story of Turkish consciousness - "bloody Shiite." Any worsening with Iran pushes on the surface of the collective consciousness of the ghost of the "bloody Shiite." I have traveled extensively in the Turkic countries of Central Asia and heard from many educated Muslims there opinion: Shiites - are not Muslims. Or, for example, the Sunnis in Iraq have a saying: "kill Shia - you get into heaven." At the beginning of the XIX century, the Saudi Bedouins, the Wahhabis attacked the Shiite holy city in Iraq and cut out the entire population. This episode, and the war between Shiites and Sunnis - an indicator of the passions between them. Between Sunnis and Shiites there dogmatic difference as between the Orthodox and Catholics. But the psychological difference between an order of magnitude higher compared to Catholics and Orthodox. Something like the medieval confrontation between Catholics and Protestants.
Turkey will do without Russian
- What is the strategic objective of Iran?
- Iran wants to create a Shiite zone countries under its protectorate. Near Iran is Iraq. There the country is divided into three parts - Kurds, Shiites and Sunnis. Sunni regions of Iraq are now mostly controlled "Islamic state." Iran wants to choose for themselves, at least, Shiite part of Iraq, and more - control over Syria. There the majority of Sunnis, Alawites in power but which loosely considered Shias. Iran is working to Alawite religious elite to move towards convergence with the classical Shiism. Therefore, Syria has actually become a country of Shiite world. At least, if you look at the elite. Iran for this fight there against Sunnis. Control of Iraq and Syria to Iran opens control over Lebanon, where the southern areas of Beirut and part of the Shia Hezbollah control. Will Shi'ite belt from sea to sea, from the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea. Plus, Iran is constantly rocking Bahrain, where the Shiite majority has opposed the Sunni minority ruling the country. If they succeed to create from these areas controlled by Tehran space, they will control most of the world's oil reserves.
- When did the process of strengthening Iran?
- It should be noted the overthrow of Hussein in Iraq by the Americans. In fact, the way to create "Shiistana" Americans cleared when removed Hussein, who controlled Iraq in favor of the Sunni minority and suppressed Shiite majority. Americans shuffled situation. Now the Shiites in power in Baghdad. I once advised a private company, which started business in Iraq. We are in contact with Ayatollah Abdul Majid al-Khoei and Ayatollah Muhammad Bakr al-Hakim, who were major theologians and political leaders of the Shiites and advocated an alliance with the Americans and opposed the innovations in the Shiite leader of Iran's Islamic revolution, Ayatollah Khomeini, well, Americans We relied on them. Everything was great, but at the very beginning of the American government in the spring of 2003, Ayatollah Abdul Majid al-Khoei was hacked to death with an ax in the main shrine of Shiite Islam Mosque of Ali in the holy city of Najaf. A year and a half later, in the early autumn of 2004, Ayatollah Muhammad Bakr al-Hakim, and almost one hundred and fifty other Shiite leaders blasted in the same main Shiite mosque. It is organized by the Iranians, to clear the way to the power of the Shiites in Iraq, they systematically killed the Shiite leaders who advocated the independence of the Iraqi Shiite Iran. Iran has eliminated all of Iraq's Shiite leaders, who opposed the hegemony of Iran among Shiites. It all happened during the American presence in Iraq, the country step by step under the control of Tehran, and the US occupation administration, then headed by Jay Garner, and then Paul Bremer, was unable (or unwilling?) To prevent this.
Can fight Sunni Shiites
- What do the Saudis?
- The Saudis understand that the situation is critical. They are not on the offensive as it may seem, but the defensive. Americans poluvmenyaemaya Obama administration, behind Iran - Russia, because the Saudis have something to worry about. Shia-Sunni war now goes to Nigeria, Pakistan, Yemen, Syria and Iraq.
- But Sunni among the Muslims outnumber?
- In the Sunni world there are a few projects. First, Saudi Arabia. Second, Turkey. But between the Arabs and Turks have a confrontation and friction. This is close to Erdogan Ikhwans ("Ikhwan al muslimin", "Muslim Brotherhood"), who came to power in Egypt, but were overthrown by the local military. Third: the jihadists. These are people who are not part of the elite Sunni Saudi Arabia and other countries. In the middle of these two forces - al-Qaeda and "Islamic state." They also conflict. When declared himself caliph of Baghdad, no one admitted. That is the Sunni world is not uniform. Therefore, the Shiites are in a better situation, there is a major country - Iran. She took control of the whole Shia world, physically destroying the whole theological and political alternative to Iran in the Shiite world.
- What was forgotten in Russia?
- Russia - is a drunken bear that climbed to the ammunition depot. You can build a nice theory, but most likely, it is still Gopnik, who has no brains. Perhaps the Russian consciousness like that they are afraid of their aircraft per day killing 100 people. But I would not look for rationality where there is none. Perhaps, from Iran to Russia passed serious bribery. At the same time, Putin said he did not know who the Turkmens in Syria. President draws the country into war, its aircraft bombed Turkomans, not having the slightest idea who they are.
Could the Kremlin to reconcile Shiites and Sunnis: expert opinion
- Why passive US in Middle East politics?
- I think that Obama's specific advisors who like that advise how to advise. For example, Muslim imams, who listens to the views of Obama - all supporters of the "Muslim Brotherhood". Even when Obama was in Chicago, they helped him to press local Sunni jihadists. I think in his entourage have prejudices. In foreign policy, Obama - this is the bad and ineffective US president. It can be compared with European leaders, who did not understand where Europe is heading before World War II.
- Another big country - China. What are their interests?
- China is experiencing economic difficulties and is dependent on Western markets. Internal Market had not. He - the prefix to the US economy. Now China is expanding influence in Africa, Latin America and Eastern Europe. For China, in the foreground the Far East rather than the Middle. It conflicts with Japan, the Philippines and Vietnam. There sleep conflict with India, which is potentially a very powerful country. The Chinese understand this, so much influence on politics in Pakistan. Now their main problem - control over transportation routes from China to Europe. They are not interested in a hard conflict in the Middle East. Challenge to the West in the near future will not be. Acting on the principle will be wise monkeys: wait until the enemy is not the corpse swims by. This corpse sailed first, and will be declared an enemy, and they will work with the winner.
- It seems that the deepening of the conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia negates the efforts of the West to find a way out of the war in Syria?
- The West is not very tense. Now none of the countries of the West does not want to go into Syria. This is the battlefield of Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. While here, these countries really fighting in the format of a proxy war. West is nothing serious is being done to stop this war.
As previously reported by observers, between Iran and Saudi Arabia is increasing stress due to the execution of Shiite preacher.